*BSD News Article 67223


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From: Terry Lambert <terry@lambert.org>
Newsgroups: comp.os.linux.development.system,comp.unix.bsd.386bsd.misc,comp.unix.bsd.bsdi.misc,comp.unix.bsd.netbsd.misc,comp.unix.bsd.freebsd.misc,comp.os.linux.advocacy
Subject: Re: Historic Opportunity facing Free Unix (was Re: The Lai/Baker paper, benchmarks, and the world of free UNIX)
Date: Sat, 27 Apr 1996 20:00:51 -0700
Organization: Me
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tedm@symantec.com wrote:
] [big long reasoning stating that Microsoft won't die deleted]
] 
] This looks fine on the surface, until you start looking at the
] history of large corporations.
] 
] The problem is that any company, no matter how large or small,
] must have a "vision" or leader of some kind.  In small
] companies the leader is usually the founder.  In large
] companies, a sucession of leaders usually takes place.
]  
] Microsoft is a young company yet, and I'd wager to say that as 
] long as Bill Gates is taking a personal interest in the
] company, it will thrive.  The big question is what happens
] afterward.

[ ... ]

] Eventually, Microsoft will lose Bill G, or he will make a
] fatal mistake, and the glass mirror will be shattered.  If
] Microsoft ever declares a large loss then it will lose the
] aura of invincibility that it currently maintains and Bill
] will never be able again to dictate the computer industry
] the way he does now.

[ ... ]

] It just goes back to "the bigger they are the harder they
] fall"  A huge company like Apple Computer, or IBM is no
] more immune to stupid leadership or simple mistakes by
] smart leadership than a small company.  The only difference
] between those 2 and Microsoft is that Small&Limp hasn't made
] any mistakes ....... yet.

I think that this whole summation is based on some false premises:

1)	The inevitability of failure

	Counter: it hasn't failed yet.

2)	Dependence on a visionary goals and/or leadership

	Counter: the Catholic Church during the Inquisition

3)	Companies dies of old age

	Counter: General foods
	Counter #2: governments, specifically Britain

4)	Perception is power

	Counter: Machiavelli's "The Prince"

5)	"The bigger they are, the arder they fall"

	Counter: "The exception that makes the rule"

Any one of these should be enough to discredit the causality
chain you are proposing.


					Regards,
                                        Terry Lambert
                                        terry@lambert.org
---
Any opinions in this posting are my own and not those of my present
or previous employers.